Understanding Odds
Odds represent the probability of an outcome and the payout you'll receive.
American Odds Format
- Negative (-110): You need to bet $110 to win $100
- Positive (+150): A $100 bet wins $150
Converting to Implied Probability
Favorite (-110): 110 / (110 + 100) = 52.4% Underdog (+150): 100 / (100 + 150) = 40%
Point Spreads
A spread levels the playing field by giving points to the underdog.
Example
- Patriots -7: Must win by MORE than 7
- Jets +7: Can lose by up to 7 and still win
- Push: Exactly 7? Bets refunded
The Juice (Vig)
Most spreads are -110. You risk more to win less, giving the sportsbook an edge.
Prop Bets
Bets on specific events that don't determine the game outcome.
Common Types
- Player Prop: Mahomes Over 250 passing yards
- Team Total: Chiefs total points Over 27.5
- In-Game Prop: First TD scorer, turnovers, etc.
- Futures: Season-long bets (championship winner, etc.)
Why Props Matter
Sharp bettors hunt inefficiencies in props because they're less liquid and have wider margins than moneylines.
Risk Management
Your bankroll is your business capital. Protect it.
Key Principles
- Unit System: 1 unit = 1-3% of bankroll. Never exceed 5-10% per bet
- Kelly Criterion: Advanced sizing based on edge and odds
- Stop Loss: Down 10-15%? Take a break and re-evaluate
- Win Rate: Track all bets. Aim for 52-55% minimum to be profitable
Example Unit System
Bankroll: $10,000 1 Unit: $100 (1% of bankroll) Max bet: $500-$1,000 (5-10 units)
Smart Money Indicators
- Line Movement: Favorites getting longer odds? Sharps may be on underdog
- Reverse Line Movement: Public bets favorite, sharps back underdog. Classic trap
- Handle vs Action: High handle + low public action = sharp money